Saudi officials appear to be weighing not only the direct risks in the Gulf but also the possibility that Iran could respond through allied forces elsewhere in the region.
Saudi Arabia is pressing the United States to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with Iran, Saudi officials told Reuters. Wall Street Journalaccording to a report published on Monday.
The report notes that Riyadh fears the situation could trigger broader escalations in the region, such as threats to Red Sea shipping lanes and Saudi oil exports.
The kingdom is particularly concerned that the Islamic Republic could use Houthi forces in Yemen to threaten the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital passageway on the Red Sea. Such a move would put further pressure on Saudi export routes and worsen disruptions already affecting global energy markets.
Arash Azizi, an Iranian-American historian and author of many books on Iran, told Jerusalem Post Office that the Houthis may be planning to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the “next round of conflict,” if escalation continues.
However, Azizi emphasized: “Iran has a strong desire to avoid that and in fact to de-escalate and seek an agreement. So that is not something they are actively planning. They see it as a contingency plan, but their general direction is towards an agreement, not escalation.”
Gulf states have faced Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting energy infrastructure, airports and urban centers in the current standoff, raising fears that any escalation around Hormuz could quickly spread.
Bahraini analyst Ahmed Alkhuzaie explains Parcel that “Gulf countries see the Strait of Hormuz as a supply lifeline and any disruption would cast a negative shadow on their core economic existence.
“They also believe that the Iran situation must soon come to a certain and lasting conclusion, as prolonged instability undermines regional stability and global energy security. For Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, the strait is more than just a geographical choke point – it is the lifeline through which their economy breathes, carrying nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
“A US blockade would paradoxically harm its allies more than Iran, destabilizing markets and eroding the Gulf’s reputation as a reliable supplier.”
Trump announced Sunday that the United States would begin a blockade of ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, casting the move as a response to Iran’s behavior and its refusal to make full concessions in negotiations.
He also said the US Navy has been instructed to intercept ships operating in international waters that have paid fees to Iran.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, November 18, 2025 (source: REUTERS/EVELYN HOCKSTEIN)
Sanctioned Chinese oil tanker leaves Gulf amid blockade
The effects on shipping were clearly visible on Tuesday, when a sanctioned Chinese tanker became the first to leave the Gulf via Hormuz since the blockade began, according to shipping data cited in the recent report. The separate report also highlighted warnings that cross-Strait traffic may not fully return to previous levels if the crisis continues.
For Riyadh, the issue is not just oil prices but also strategic risks. Saudi Arabia has maintained export resilience through Red Sea routes, but renewed unrest around Bab al-Mandeb will threaten one of its main alternatives to Hormuz.
“Their preferred response to Iran is not escalation through a shutdown but deterrence and stabilization. Iran has repeatedly threatened to obstruct the Strait in retaliation for sanctions or military pressure, and Gulf states want Washington to counter these threats without triggering a broader conflict,” Alkhuzaie stated.
“The desired approach is a combination of diplomatic pressure, international legitimacy through bodies such as the United Nations, and, if necessary, limited military measures to ensure safe passage. This ensures that Iran’s coercive tactics are deterred, while the Strait remains open to global trade.”
Both Washington and Tehran may remain willing to take new diplomatic measures despite the confrontation. For Saudi Arabia, that possibility looks better than a protracted crisis in which pressure on Hormuz simply shifts the threat to another maritime choke point, while the strait remains central to global energy flows.
“Ultimately, the Gulf states want the United States to act as a guarantor of maritime security, not a troublemaker. The balance they seek is clear: strong enough to deter Iranian provocations, but restrained enough to avoid punishing Gulf exporters themselves. In essence, Saudi Arabia and its allies want Washington to ensure freedom of navigation, maintain stability in energy markets, and prevent Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical weapon treatment”, Alkhuzaie concluded.