US Navy ships sent an unmistakable signal on Saturday as they crossed the Strait of Hormuz, challenging Iran’s control of the narrow waterway that has the potential to determine the outcome of the war in the Middle East.
USS Michael Murphy turned on its automatic identification system when it and another destroyer, USS Frank E. Petersontransited the strait, breaking the normal protocol of Navy ships turning off AIS.
“You can’t accidentally put AIS on a Navy ship,” Campbell University professor Salvatore Mercogliano, who specializes in military and maritime history, said on his podcast. “This is on purpose. They want to turn it on on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz to prove that they have passed through.”
US Central Command said the destroyers had begun setting conditions to clear mines laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
They added that more US forces, including underwater drones, would join the clearance effort in the coming days, pointing out that the strait is an international waterway and an essential trade corridor.
In a statement, Admiral Brad Cooper said Central Command is “establishing a new path” for the maritime industry to ensure the free flow of commerce.
Iran’s hold on the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas flowed before the war, has triggered a global energy crisis and is the regime’s main form of leverage over the United States.
The frigates’ passage through the strait comes as the US and Iran begin ceasefire talks in Pakistan this weekend. But if the Navy creates a safe passage for tankers without having to seek permission from Iran and pay fees, then negotiations will shift in America’s favor.
As a result, the IRGC challenged the Navy’s destroyers as they transited, according to radio chatter recorded by a civilian ship shared with the IRGC. Wall Street Journal.
“This is the final warning. This is the final warning,” the IRGC said.
“Passing in accordance with international law. There is no challenge to you and I intend to comply with our government’s ceasefire rules,” the American ship replied.
Iranian media said the destroyers turned back after encountering the IRGC, which allegedly launched a drone at the destroyers. The IRGC also said any attempt by military vessels to pass through the strait would be met with a “resolute and strong response.”
Until now, US warships have avoided the strait because Navy officials have previously described it as Iran’s “kill box” filled with a variety of threats, including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack boats and mines. And because the strait is so narrow, artillery shells can be fired from close range and there is not much time to react defensively.
Meanwhile, the US military continues to send more combat power to the region. The third aircraft carrier and thousands of marines and paratroopers are expected to arrive later this month. More large cruise missiles are also headed to the Middle East.
Mercogliano said there had been previous indications that the Navy had resupplied its ships via Diego Garcia Island, likely to replenish ammunition. Littoral warships, equipped with mine-hunting underwater drones, could also participate.
While it’s unclear whether destroyers entered the strait with those ships, it still marks an important milestone for the oil trade.
“One of the things that commercial ships are waiting to see is whether the strait is clear, and getting two destroyers in is a big deal,” he added.
Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, another military clash between the US and Iran could soon emerge. Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally told CNBC on Thursday that he thinks the United States is “ready for round 2.”
As the United States weakens Iran’s ability to threaten shipping traffic, he said, Iran’s leverage will be eroded and conditions for a lasting ceasefire with a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be imposed later this month.
McNally compared neutralizing Iran’s threats to a game of whack-a-mole, noting the diversity of the country’s weapons and pointing out that the United States has reduced Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines.
“It may not have been widely reported, but I believe the U.S. military over the last week or so has been focused on going after those moles, degrading Iran’s capabilities,” he added. “You may not eliminate it perfectly, but get Iran’s ability to interdict shipping down to a manageable level — and that’s when insurance can come in and escorting, and people can start moving.”
This story was originally published on Fortune.com