Ceasefire talks between the US and Iran have begun in Pakistan, but a potential military clash between the two countries is already imminent.
On Saturday, US Navy ships moved through the Strait of Hormuz in an uncoordinated exercise with Iran, sources told Axios, marking the first such move since the war began six weeks ago.
The report said the ships crossed the strait into the Persian Gulf, then returned to the Arabian Sea, and a US official said the focus was on freedom of navigation.
A statement from US Central Command confirmed that two destroyers had passed through the strait to begin establishing conditions for mine clearance, adding that underwater drones would join the effort.
“Today, we begin the process of establishing a new route, and we will soon share this secure route with the maritime industry to encourage the free flow of commerce,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command.
But Iran claimed this was a violation of the ceasefire, and a source told Bloomberg that the Navy destroyers were forced to turn back after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone at them.
Also on Saturday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is “beginning the process of clearing the Strait of Hormuz”. Meanwhile, three supertankers passed through the narrow waterway, marking the biggest day of oil exports through Hormuz since Iran closed the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil passed before the war.
Trump paused the war against Iran for two weeks while negotiations were ongoing. However, the ceasefire remains fragile as hostilities continue and Iran maintains tight control of the strait.
At the same time, the US military continues to send more combat power to the region. The third aircraft carrier and thousands of marines and paratroopers are expected to arrive later this month. More large cruise missiles are also headed to the Middle East.
“I think we’re almost ready for round 2,” Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally told CNBC on Thursday. “But as we study Iran’s ability to disrupt Hormuz, which unfortunately we started too late but we’re doing it now, Iran’s leverage is starting to erode. And I think the conditions for a real ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fully reopening it, will be stronger at the end of this month than they are now.”
He compared weakening Iran’s threats to a game of whack-a-mole, listing anti-ship missile launchers, small fast attack craft, drones, submarines and long-range artillery.
McNally, who previously served as White House energy adviser to President George W. Bush, also pointed out that the United States has reduced Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines that could be used to close the strait.
“It may not have been widely reported, but I believe the U.S. military over the last week or so has been focused on going after those moles, degrading Iran’s capabilities,” he added. “You may not eliminate it perfectly, but get Iran’s ability to interdict shipping down to a manageable level — and that’s when insurance can come in and escorting, and people can start moving.”
Currently, Iran’s missiles and drones are enough to drive away ships, bringing effective control to Tehran. Although a small number of ships have been allowed to pass through, this must be done very selectively and at a cost of about $2 million.
Iran is looking to formalize this “toll station” in ceasefire negotiations, and Trump is even thinking that the US could enter into a joint venture with the Islamic republic to collect transit fees.
However, Gulf states that export oil and gas through Hormuz have signaled that they will not accept Iranian control of the strait. Meanwhile, Wall Street warns it will also threaten the US dollar’s dominance in global trade.
In an interview with India’s Times Now newspaper on Wednesday, McNally said allowing Iran to rule the strait would set a dangerous precedent, encouraging similar behavior in other parts of the world.
“It would be a disruption of global order, trade and stability,” he said. “It’s hard for me to imagine that the United States will end this conflict, leaving Iran strengthened and able to extort, not just tolls but other concessions: diplomatic concessions, foreign policy concessions, military concessions.”
This story was originally published on Fortune.com