By Andrew Osborn, Dmitry Antonov and Jan Lopatka
MOSCOW, April 13 (Reuters) – Russian hardliners see Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary as a serious blow that would free up EU funding for Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia for another year, but the Kremlin downplayed the outcome, saying it was ready to negotiate with Orban’s successor.
Orban, Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader who lost power on Sunday to emerging center-right rival Peter Magyar after 16 years in power, was a welcome guest in Moscow, where he held talks with President Vladimir Putin in November.
Orban ensured that Hungary continued to buy Russian oil and gas despite Moscow’s war in Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-russia-war/, allowed Russia to begin construction of a new nuclear power plant south of Budapest, and generally spoke out against sanctions on Russia while outspokenly opposing Kyiv’s bid to join the 27-nation bloc.
He also blocked a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) EU loan to Ukraine after accusing Ukraine of sabotaging Russian oil deliveries to his country by dragging its feet on repairs to a damaged pipeline, something Kyiv denies.
Magyar is an unknown to Moscow. He has combined a pro-EU and pro-NATO tone with public acknowledgment that he will need to talk with Putin and continue buying Russian oil and gas for the time being despite discussions about diversification and reviewing contracts.
However, the Kremlin has made clear that it is ready to turn the page quickly if he does so. Without mentioning Orban by name, they said they respected the choice of the Hungarian people and were willing to do business with Magyar.
“We look forward to continuing practical cooperation with the new Hungarian leadership,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“We note Magyar’s statement about his readiness to engage in dialogue. Naturally, this will benefit both Moscow and Budapest,” Peskov said.
Peskov later told state television that it was unclear what the stance of Hungary’s new leadership would be and that the Kremlin would not congratulate Magyar on his victory as Hungary is officially considered an “unfriendly country”.
UNLOCK EU FUNDS?
However, Russia’s hardliners and war bloggers are almost unanimous that Orban’s defeat is bad news for Moscow.
“Orban’s defeat in the election will have a consequence for us in Russia. But it is a very important consequence,” said Andrei Medvedev, a blogger and journalist with a large following.
“Now… Ukraine will receive EU money and with it the resources to wage war for at least a year,” he said. Needless to say, the Ukrainian armed forces and many contractors will “focus on further developing their drone systems and missile capabilities.”
Ramzai, another influential blogger, is equally gloomy.
“It is clear that Hungary will soon stop blocking the imposition of sanctions against Russia and the EU’s support of billions of euros to Ukraine. Russia’s contracts for the completion of the Paks (II) nuclear power plant and the supply of gas and oil will also be called into question,” he said.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Hungary’s close ties with Russia were unlikely to disappear overnight and would likely shrink to strictly pragmatic levels.
Ultimately, however, he said future relations will be determined by how Magyar decides to deal with Russia’s oil and gas supplies, which the EU as a bloc wants to phase out.
“If Hungary cooperates with the rest of the EU to allow this (a phase-out) to happen, then Hungary’s role as a friendlier outpost to Moscow within the EU will effectively be gone,” Ignatov said.
“Otherwise things will be much more complicated.”
SLOVAKIA’S FICO LIKE NEW ORBAN?
Orban’s loss is also a blow to his ally, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Fico has warm relations with Russia, is interested in buying Russian oil and gas and has warned that Bratislava could block a 90 billion euro EU loan to Kyiv if Budapest withdraws its opposition.
But diplomats, opposition politicians and analysts believe that Fico – whose fractured ruling coalition is hanging by a slim parliamentary majority – could struggle to take on Orban’s role as the EU’s disruptive director general. They say Bratislava is heavily dependent on EU funding.
The fact that the country is half the size of Hungary means it also carries less political influence, said Miroslav Wlachovsky, a former foreign minister of Slovakia.
“I believe that Fico will not move further east. He will look for someone who is not completely isolated in Brussels,” said an EU diplomat, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Tomas Strazay, director of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, said he believes Fico will continue his pro-Russian rhetoric and criticism of EU policies because that is what his voters want to hear. “Given his internal position on Russia, he will need to maneuver and I believe Russia’s interest in Slovakia will increase,” Strazay said.
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(Reporting by Andrew Osborn and Dmitry Antonov in Moscow and Jan Lopatka in Prague; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Gareth Jones and Andrew Heavens)